HELENA — It does not take a meteorologist to tell you that there has not been much snow in the lower elevations so far this winter. But that does not translate to the mountains. When thinking about fire season, streamflow, and spring and summer runoff later this year, the winter snow in the lower elevations has a minimal impact. mountain precipitation is the main factor.
Current drought conditions show roughly only 20 percent of the state in some sort of drought level. One year ago, that number was 54 percent. At the start of the water year in October, that number was 41 percent. Two spots near the golden triangle in the plains are in extreme drought, making up 1.5 percent of the state. Last year, that number was nearly 14 percent.
Drought conditions have improved significantly over the last year. In December, large parts of northwest and northern Montana saw a 2-class drought improvement change. While soil moisture is especially dry around the Golden Triangle through the Great Falls area and parts of southwest Montana, soil moisture is at or above 70% across most of the remainder of the state.
The seasonal drought outlook through March shows no drought persisting or developing, but areas either improving or ending, with no drought likely in most of the state.
While this pattern of dry and mild weather will continue in the lower elevations, the long-term forecast through March is still calling for below-average temperatures and above-average precipitation.
How it looks in your yard is not a depiction of the bigger picture.
