HELENA — Sometimes in Montana, it feels like we can experience multiple different seasons in just one day. Another thing that’s different when it comes to weather in Montana—what is in a TV forecast and what’s on weather apps. Viewer Joan asked why doesn’t the TV forecast always line up with her app? Luckily, MTN has a in-house expert to help answer that one.
Chief Meteorologist Curtis Grevenitz has been forecasting weather in Montana for decades.
“Montana, I would say, is extremely difficult to forecast for because of the mountains, the Continental Divide, the plains, influence from Canada. We’re practically a desert here,” Grevenitz said.
While viewers see his forecasts on TV each night, they don’t see all the work that goes into them. The first step is to understand current conditions.
“Just start with what is happening, what we know,” Grevenitz said.
That means looking at temperatures, wind, what’s on the radar, what satellite images show.
After getting a full picture of current conditions, Grevenitz said he looks at computer models. There are a lot of computer models out there, and they’re not always right.
“Sometimes I’ll look at one computer model and know right off the bat this thing is wrong,” Grevenitz said.
While Grevenitz is able to analyze computer models and determine which ones are more accurate given the conditions he’s monitoring, apps can’t.
“Weather apps are using computer models, the same computer models I use, but I don’t know if they’re using a bunch of models, if they’re just using one computer model, if they’re blending all the computer models and finding an average—which is not the right way to forecast here,” Grevenitz said.
Grevenitz also has lived experience that helps shape his forecasting, something apps don’t have.
“Using what I know, patterns, things that old-timers have told me that I’ve learned—I try to incorporate that in with making a forecast with satellites, radars and computer models,” he said.
Weather apps are convenient, and sometimes what they show lines up with what’s on TV, but Grevenitz and other meteorologists across Montana use their experience and knowledge to analyze data, current conditions and computer models to create a forecast viewers can count on.
