Axis of Monsoon Moisture

Posted at 4:22 PM, Aug 10, 2022
and last updated 2022-08-10 19:56:45-04

There has been a lot of cloud cover for parts of the state but not much moisture...yet. Monsoon moisture from the southwestern United States and some moisture from the Pacific is surging northward through the Rockies and is arriving in Montana. Eventually this axis of moisture will move across the state with a chance at thunderstorms producing rain but also lightning strikes. There appears to be enough moisture that these thunderstorms will not be dry, and some locally heavy rain is possible. Lightning strikes are a guarantee, and since the forests are dry and the temperatures have been hot, the fire danger will remain high. New lightning sparked wildfires are a possibility as long as there are storms around through the weekend. Strong winds are not in the immediate forecast, which is good news, and at the very least the monsoon moisture will produce more cloud cover which will keep temperatures lower. Without the partial cloud cover, the sun would be more intense and temperatures would be hotter. A few thunderstorms have developed over the central Rockies and these storms will continue through Wednesday night and into early Thursday morning. Thursday will be partly cloudy with a few isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon, but just like Wednesday there will be an increase in storms late at night. Highs will be in the 80s and 90s. Friday will have an increase in moisture and afternoon storms across more of the state. Storms will continue again into the night. Saturday, storms could be widespread for much central and eastern areas. Temperatures will be more in the 80s and lower 90s. Sunday will be mostly sunny with an isolated storm over western Montana. The eastern half of the state will have more thunderstorm activity and slightly cooler temperatures. The storms dry out by Monday, and most of next week will be dry and sunny with highs in the 80s and 90s. Looking longer range, a pattern change is possible sometime around the 20th to the 24th of August. Temperatures may cool significantly and there is a chance of a widespread, gentle rain.

Curtis Grevenitz
Chief Meteorologist