Moisture has fallen overnight and continues into Monday morning. A small upper-level disturbance will move eastward across northwest Montana before dissipating by mid-morning. Winds today are moderate from the southwest. Due to the southwesterly direction, this particular wind flow is helping to continue moisture inflow into Montana. There's enough instability in our atmosphere today to allow for lightning strikes across the state and thunderstorm development in central/southwestern Montana. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed southwest Montana in a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms today. This is mainly due to the potential existing for nickel size hail. Thunderstorm activity will likely continue for parts of Montana throughout the evening hours, but will move out of the state to the east by sunrise Tuesday. Tuesday will be a break in our long string of wet days, temperatures will be mild with Helena and great falls seeing 70s and party sunny skies. Wednesday a cold front will move into northwestern Montana from Alberta. This weak cold front will start the atmospheric dominos in motion that will have Montana's temperatures back below average by the end of the week. Closely following that cold front will be an upper-level low pressure system that will arrive with more moisture as it aids in dropping temperatures into Thursday. By the end of the week Helena and Great Falls will potentially see a few flakes of snow, and could also see a slick and messy mix of both if the weather conditions play out right. Keep in mind that now would not be a great time to plant anything, as the Montana weather pattern is all over the place here at the end of spring and temperatures will most-likely be around 20 degrees below average to end the week. As always: A cloudy day is no match for a sunny disposition.
Be nice to each other.
- Trey Tonnessen -