Happy Groundhog Day! While the groundhog predicted 6 more weeks of winter, this first week of February will be more like spring with new record highs likely. This "winter" pattern has left Montana and most of the West with very dry and mild conditions, and the East and South have been extremely cold and snowy. The pattern will likely peak this week with the warmest weather of the season in the West, and the coldest of the cold in the East. However, there are signs that this pattern is finally changing as late this weekend and next week will see a different setup as snow and colder temperatures likely return to Montana and much of the West. Tuesday will be a partly cloudy day after some morning freezing fog up in northeast Montana. While highs in northeast Montana will be in the 20s and 30s, the majority of the state will have highs in the 40s to around 50. That's mild, but not as warm as it gets on Wednesday. High pressure will strengthen through the West with warming temperatures. Montana will have highs in the 50s and low 60s under partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies. Northeast Montana will still be cooler, in the 30s and 40s. Thursday will likely be the warmest day this week, and maybe one of the warmest days ever recorded in Montana in February. Numerous locations will likely set daily highs, but some towns like Great Falls and Lewistown could set their all-time warmest February temperature ever record with afternoon temps near 70. Friday will be ever so slightly cooler under mostly sunny skies. The start of the weekend will be partly cloudy and warm with highs in the 50s and 60s. Sunday is when changes will start to happen. Clouds will increase and highs will only be in the 40s and 50s. A cold front will move through Sunday night into Monday bringing a chance for accumulating snow in the lower elevations. Highs will be much colder on Monday, in the 20s and 30s. The pattern looks to stay more active and colder in Montana and the West through the middle of February at least. Maybe the groundhog was right...
Curtis Grevenitz
Chief Meteorologist
