Summer's not over yet, the leaves haven't really started changing, but an upcoming winter is always on the minds of Montanans. The last several winters have had their moments, but not many would say they were harsh or extreme. Last winter was a weak El Niño winter that saw drought increase across the western part of the state. The three previous winters were La Niña winters, which are supposed to be colder and snowier than normal. Most of those years ended up being close to "average" winters in Montana.
The Old Farmer's Almanac shows Montana to be mild and dry for most of the state, with western Montana being wet. That's an outlier forecast as the rest show something different. The new farmer's almanac says very cold and snowy for Montana, most of the Rockies and plains, and across to the northeast.
This random forecast shows Montana in a warm, dry start but a cold and snowy end to the season.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association's official forecast is for close to average temperatures with above-average precipitation. Side note, NOAA was way off with last winter and this summer's seasonal forecast.
All signs point to a La nina developing. The blue lines are the likelihood of La Niña. A traditional La Niña does bring in a more active and colder northern branch of the jet stream into the Pacific Northwest, Northern Rockies, plains and the northeast. However, there never seems to be a typical La Niña, they're always different.
But the bigger change is the Pacific Decadal Oscillation that has turned to a negative phase and may have contributed to the cool-ish, wet summer we just had.
This meteorologist is leaning toward a harsher, colder winter than we have seen since 2017-2018. There are too many indicators of a strong winter to ignore.
