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Isolated Severe Threat for Southwest Montana as Thunderstorm Activity Continues This Afternoon

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Posted
and last updated

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY has been issued for East Glacier and northern sections of the Rocky Mountain Front through 9AM Friday

A SPEACIAL WEATER STATEMENT for PATCHY FOG has been issued for lower elevations in central Montana through this morning

A WINTER STORM WARNING has been issued for Yellowstone National Park and Bighorn Mountains through Monday afternoon.

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Get those weather bingo card ready, because we have just about everything going on today. Fog in the central plains, Isolated severe storms in the southwest, snow along the Rocky Mountain Front, and temperatures reaching almost 80 degrees in the east.

We have a level 1/5 marginal severe threat for southwest Montana; including Helena, Great Falls, and Missoula. We have about the same amount of instability as we had yesterday. But with strong southwest flow transporting moisture, steep low level lapse rates (change temperature with height), and decent wind profiles (change in direction and speed with height), we have the potential for development of isolated severe thunderstorms along the stationary front positioned in a SW-NE orientation just west of Helena.

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We will have partly cloudy skies early in the afternoon that will produce just enough instability to produce thunderstorms.
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Several parameters, like lapse rates and updraft strength, will come together today to allow the development of small hail in isolated storm cells.

There is also the possibility of strong gusty wind this afternoon and evening in extreme southwest portions of the state, especially near the Idaho border. Winds can gust from 50 to 60 mph.

Out east, we are still under the influence of high pressure and in a riding pattern, Temperatures have the potential reach in the mid to upper 70s in places like Glasgow, Miles City, Glendive, and Jordan. Gusty winds will accompany the warm temperatures.

Tomorrow will be dry and cool for most of the state during the day. An upper-level low moves from California to portions of Idaho and Wyoming on Friday which will allow a rain snow mix Friday night, transitioning to mostly snow on Saturday morning.

The Jet steam also is in a prime location to enhance snowfall totals across central portions of the state on Saturday. The snow will last through the day on Saturday in higher elevations. Lower elevations will have a wintry mix. The storm will continue on into Sunday.

Snow totals for Helena and Great Falls seem to me in the 1-4 inch range right now. But the mountains have the potential to see much more. The Rocky Mountain Front and East Glacier can see almost a foot of snow.

We will be dry and in a warming trend starting on Monday.

Helena Temperature Records Today:
High: 75° (1987)
Low: 6° (1880)
AVG: 54/30

Great Falls Temperature Records Today:
High: 75° (1960)
Low: 6° (1936)
AVG: 50/28

Have a good Thursday!
Joey Biancone
Meteorologist

Facebook: Meteorologist Joey Biancone
Instagram: joeybianconewx