Trouble in the Tropics: How This Historical Storm Could Send Moisture Our Way

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Posted at 8:22 AM, Jul 02, 2024

A major hurricane is pummeling the Caribbean with catastrophic winds and storm surge. As it continues its trek towards the west, there is a chance that it could transport moisture to Montana next week.

Hurricane Beryl set the record for the earliest ever Category 4 storm in the Atlantic Basin on June 30, 2024. It made landfall on the island of Carriacou in Grenada yesterday.

It just set the record for the earliest ever Category 5 storm in the Atlantic Basin on July 1, 2024. Jamaica is expected to receive the eyewall tomorrow. Hurricane Warnings are in effect for the entire island.

The current location and track of Major Hurricane Beryl.

Why does this matter to Montana? Well, depending on the position on the monsoon high in the desert southwest this weekend as Beryl approaches the Gulf of Mexico, the remnant moisture could be transported around that high and towards Montana next week. Models don’t handle tropical systems particularly well, so it’s hard to tell at this time what exactly will happen. We should have a better handle on things by this weekend.

But let's be clear, this should not be a major hurricane by the time it gets to the United States. If this scenario above were to play out, it would only be moisture being transported which could help us get some showers and thunderstorms.

The other scenario would be that the remnants of Beryl defected to the southeastern states.

There is plenty of moisture in our state right now. We will have showers and storms over the next few days.

Temperatures today will be in the 70s for a lot of us. Partly cloudy skies early will lead to showers and thunderstorms forming later on this afternoon.

A small disturbance pushes in from the north tomorrow, bring some more widespread rain and thunderstorms and lowering temperatures into the 60s for some of us.

Independence Day forecast.

For Independence Day, Western Montana will dry throughout the day as high pressure builds in. Eastern Montana will be wet. Temperatures will be comfortable topping out in the upper 70s.

We dry out and warm significantly into the weekend and into next week. We could be talking triple digit temperatures by the middle of next week.

Helena Temperature Records Today:
High: 100 (2013)
Low: 38 (1973)
AVG: 81/52

Great Falls Temperature Records Today:
High: 99 (2013)
Low: 40 (2011)
AVG: 79/49

Have a great Tuesday!
Joey Biancone

Facebook: Meteorologist Joey Biancone
Instagram: joeybianconewx